Overheard1 / 105
Issue −4 · Sunday 6 September 2026

Overheard

What we overheard this week in AI, software, media, leading and experiments.

By Mattias Ahlström · about twenty minutes

Made with AI. Mattias Ahlström picks the direction. His AI assistant researches, writes and builds every page. Sources are linked, figures are checked against them, and mistakes can still slip through.

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Overheard, Issue −4

Seven stories, a few small finds at the end. All of it happened out there. If you lead a small team or a small newsroom, you will see where it touches you. I mostly leave that to you.

Question 1

The dams linked to higher salmon survival were built by a council whose staff member co-wrote the study. A Lean proof of Fermat's Last Theorem came from Anthropic and was checked by the leader of a parallel formalization project. None of this makes a result false. It tells you where to look for the second opinion.

Question 2

In Texas, lawmakers added $1 to a car-insurance fee in 2023 to fight catalytic converter theft. The Tribune says the money also paid for licence-plate cameras. At the Times, a union drew a line between an ad and an integration. The purpose gets written once. It gets read many times.

Question 3

60 percent survival is one creek, with two years of "before". 34.7 percent is a count of citations a reader cannot verify, not of wrong answers. 2.4 percent is how much of one report's sample three sites made up. Before you repeat a figure, learn its denominator.

How I write this

A note on how I write this. I mark what is confirmed, what is reported, and what is my own reading. Where I only saw a headline, I say so.

01

Beaver Dams Without Beavers

People built wicker dams in two California creeks. In one of them, tagged young coho survived at 60 percent instead of 8.

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8%
survival

The average survival of tagged young coho salmon in French Creek, California, in the two years before the dams. After the dams it was 60 percent.

Pollock, Munsch and Yokel, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 8 July 2026

The study

The study is not from this week. Michael Pollock, Stuart Munsch and Erich Yokel published it in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution on 8 July. What spread in the past days was coverage of it, for example Discover Wildlife on 2 September.

The dams

The dams are low-tech. The Scott River Watershed Council, in northern California, drives small wooden posts across a stream. It weaves willow or conifer branches between them. Gravel, straw and mud seal the upstream side. The water slows and pools. Young salmon get still water to grow in.

From dams to coverage

  1. 2015Sugar Creek gets two structures
  2. 2018French Creek gets an off-channel pond and several small dams
  3. 8 July 2026Study published in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
  4. 2 September 2026Discover Wildlife covers it

Source: Pollock, Munsch and Yokel; Discover Wildlife.

Slow water created

Sugar Creek, about 0.7 hectaresAbout 7,000 m²
French Creek, 20181,858 m²

0.7 hectares converted to square metres (own calculation). Source: Pollock, Munsch and Yokel, 8 July 2026.

The numbers

Survival comes from PIT-tagged juveniles, almost all 65 to 80 millimetres long, picked up on antennas and corrected for detection. In French Creek the mean was 8 percent for brood years 2015 and 2016, and 60 percent for 2017 to 2020. Sugar Creek averaged 55 percent. Across all years the range was 6 to 90 percent.

Juvenile coho survival, mean per creek

French Creek before dams, brood years 2015-20168%
French Creek after dams, brood years 2017-202060%
Sugar Creek, mean of all years55%

Range across all years 6 to 90 percent. One watershed, before and after, no untreated comparison. PIT-tagged fish, corrected for detection. Source: Pollock, Munsch and Yokel, 8 July 2026.

French Creek, before and after

Before, 2 brood years8 percent
After, 4 brood years60 percent

8 percent became 60

One creek, no untreated creek beside it. Source: Pollock, Munsch and Yokel, 8 July 2026.

The limits

Now the limits. The 8 to 60 is one creek. The "before" is two brood years. The "after" is four.

“
when juveniles reared in restored habitats and when conditions were cooler and wetter.

The authors' own model, on when survival was highest. Weather is half of that sentence.

Who did the work

One more fact belongs here. Pollock and Munsch work for NOAA; the third author, Erich Yokel, works for the Scott River Watershed Council, which built the dams. The people reporting the result are close to the people who did the work. That is not a flaw on its own. It is a reason to want a second creek and a second team.

02

The Fee That Became 3,200 Cameras

A Texas fee on car insurance was meant for catalytic converter theft. Reporting shows it also paid for Flock licence-plate readers.

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0
cameras

At least that many Flock licence-plate cameras the Texas Tribune found were paid for with money from a fee on car insurance.

Texas Tribune, 28 August 2026

The fee and the split

Of each $5, $1 goes to general revenue for catalytic converter theft prevention. The other $4 is split: 20 percent to the Motor Vehicle Crime Prevention Authority, 20 percent to general revenue for criminal justice, 60 percent to trauma and emergency care.

Where one $5 insurance fee goes, by statute

Catalytic converter theft prevention$1.00
Motor Vehicle Crime Prevention Authority$0.80
General revenue, criminal justice$0.80
Trauma and emergency care$2.40

Statute text read on a public mirror, Transportation Code 1006.153 as amended by SB 224 and HB 2190 (2023); the sources do not show which share paid for the cameras. Source: Texas Transportation Code 1006.153; Texas Tribune, 28 August 2026.

The cameras

Ayden Runnels and Alex Ford reported on 28 August that at least $30 million of fee money went to Flock. About 2,000 cameras came through at least 95 local grants. About 1,200 came through the Department of Public Safety.

Money named in the reporting

Fee money to Flock, at leastAt least $30 million
Authority contract with DPS, 1,183 cameras$15.9 million
Tollway cameras added in August, 583 cameras$3 million

Grant totals not checked against the authority's own records. Source: Texas Tribune, 28 August 2026.

One camera in four

0%

Share of Texas Flock cameras the Tribune says fee money paid for, roughly

Based on a crowdsourced estimate of about 13,000 cameras in the state. Source: Texas Tribune, 28 August 2026.

“
I did not have that in mind when we passed the bill. When I think of combating crime, I'm thinking ... more boots on the ground.

Sen. Carol Alvarado, the bill's author

Two facts, not one ratio

Searches

Licence-plate data was searched 62,000 times in 2025

Covers all uses and all cameras

Cases

About 1,660 cleared catalytic converter theft cases

Covers one crime

Do not divide one by the other. Source: the authority's own report, as the Tribune cites it.

From a fee to a freeze

  1. 2023Fee amended; the bill's caption is about catalytic converters
  2. 2025Authority signs a $15.9 million, three-year contract with DPS
  3. 24 August 2026A Lufkin officer is indicted on 100 counts of misusing official information
  4. 27-28 August 2026Gov. Abbott directs state agencies to stop funding Flock cameras
  5. 2 September 2026Reason reports on the Wisconsin stop

Source: Texas Tribune; Reason.

My reading

My reading: the law was voted on once. What the money bought was decided later, by a board.

Carry this with you

Is there a fee in your own town that paid for something nobody voted on?

03

The Footnote That Does Not Open

Two reports on how Perplexity cites its sources. Neither says the answers are wrong.

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34.7%
of citations

Of 1,826 Perplexity citations tied to a sentence with a figure, the share that pointed to a page that would not open for an ordinary reader, or held none of the numbers in the sentence.

Haus Research, 2 September 2026

The test

Haus Research counted how often that happens. It asked 310 factual questions about 210 tech companies: when founded, how much funding, how many employees.

One in three footnotes

34 of 100. 34.7 percent of 1,826 citations would not hold up for a reader

Shaded squares rounded from 34.7 percent. A gated page is not necessarily a wrong page (Haus); the study measures whether the cited page works as proof, not whether the answer is true. Source: Haus Research, 2 September 2026.

Per citation, per claim

Per citation34.7 percent of 1,826
Per claim14.4 percent of 872

34.7 against 14.4

A claim passed if any of its pages carried any of its figures. Source: Haus Research, 2 September 2026.

“
We are not measuring whether Perplexity is right. We are measuring whether the thing it offers as proof functions as proof.

Haus Research

The second report

Trellner Research asked a different question on the same day. Where does Perplexity look when you ask for the top five software products?

What Trellner put through Perplexity

Buying-intent questions380count
Calls760count
Domains cited2055count
Citations7534count

Sonar and sonar-pro via OpenRouter, not the Perplexity app; snapshots. Source: Trellner Research, 2 September 2026.

Where the citations point

0%

Percent of citations pointing to domains ranked worse than 100,000 on the Tranco list

Source: Trellner Research, 2 September 2026.

Generated pages in sitemaps, three sites

Site one70,731
Site two71,684
Site three72,713

Together 215,128 pages; Trellner's signs of generation are signs, not proof of who wrote them. Those sites account for 181 of 7,534 citations, 2.4 percent. Source: Trellner Research.

Limits

Both reports state limits. Trellner: "We have not shown that any of this changes the answers."

The data

Haus has published its dataset under CC BY 4.0.

04

The Letter and the Kalshi Deal

A union at the Times asked the company to drop a prediction-market partnership. Whether there was a deal to drop is unclear.

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“
Any partnership between Kalshi and The Athletic would threaten our journalistic independence across the company.

NewsGuild of New York letter, 2 September 2026

2,000+
employees

The guild represents more than 2,000 Times employees in three units.

NewsGuild of New York, 2 September 2026

The statement

Unanimous. That is how the Times Guild Unit Council and The Athletic's contract action team approved the statement the NewsGuild of New York published on 2 September.

The letter

Its letter went to A.G. Sulzberger and to The Athletic's publisher, David Perpich. It speaks of the company's "potential deal" for The Athletic to partner with Kalshi, a prediction-market company. It asks the company to "abandon this deal."

Two days, one letter, two versions

  1. AugustFront Office Sports reports "advanced talks"
  2. 2 SeptemberNewsGuild publishes the statement; an anonymous source says The Athletic is not moving forward
  3. 3 SeptemberAwful Announcing summarises both

No signed deal reported; whether the letter mattered is disputed. Source: NewsGuild of New York; Front Office Sports; Awful Announcing.

Where the line sits

  1. 1
    An adBuying ad space is one thing.
  2. 2
    An integrationIntegration into the journalism is another.

Source: Austin Meek, as quoted by Front Office Sports.

“
any deal that integrates an advertiser's marketing and products directly into our news coverage and journalistic content is concerning to us.

Austin Meek, senior Athletic writer on the bargaining team, to Front Office Sports

Three accounts

The letter

Abandon this deal

Any partnership would threaten journalistic independence

The anonymous source

The Athletic is not moving forward with Kalshi

Staff told a few days ago; the letter played no role

The reporting

Advanced talks in August

No signed deal; no contract value published

The source is anonymous and is not a Times statement. Source: Front Office Sports.

Two versions

So two versions are in play. The anonymous source says the decision came first, and the reporting describes no signed deal. The union asked for an abandonment anyway. The two accounts give the letter different roles. I cannot say which is right.

Kalshi

Kalshi does not comment on rumoured deals. A Kalshi spokesperson told Front Office Sports that prediction markets are "a great complement to news sites like The Athletic and The New York Times."

Carry this with you

Where does your own line sit between an ad and a story?

05

"Did You Use AI on Your Commits?"

A game developer says the bosses he knows keep asking one question. His own working life is the counter-argument.

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“
Everyone I know, their bosses are slowly getting psychosis, right? They're just like, 'Yeah, but did you use AI on your commits?'

Tarn Adams, creator of Dwarf Fortress, to PC Gamer

The interview

Tarn Adams, creator of Dwarf Fortress, said this to PC Gamer at Gamescom. Joshua Wolens did the interview, Harvey Randall wrote it up, and it ran on 1 September.

Adams's longer point, condensed

  1. 1
    The pitchA CEO presses a button that makes a game.
  2. 2
    The catchEveryone else somehow buys it without a job.
  3. 3
    The endingA pop and a reckoning, then it is on repeat.

Condensed from Adams's own words as quoted by PC Gamer, 1 September 2026.

Anecdote

This is an anecdote. "Everyone I know" is a circle of friends. Nobody measured how often bosses ask about commits.

Claim and counter-example

The claim

Everyone I know: bosses ask about AI on commits

Nobody measured how often

His own work

In 2021, all the code written by himself

No team-oriented or bureaucratic hurdles

Source: PC Gamer, 1 September 2026; Stack Overflow Blog, 31 December 2021.

0
lines of code

By a rough count (he searched for semicolons), the Dwarf Fortress code base in 2021, all written by Adams. A figure from 2021, not today.

Stack Overflow Blog, 31 December 2021

The better evidence

The better evidence is his own situation. In a 2021 Stack Overflow Blog profile, he wrote all of the code himself. By a rough count (he searched for semicolons) he put it at 711,000 lines then, a figure from 2021, not today.

“
I don't have any team-oriented or bureaucratic hurdles to jump through when I want to make an alteration. I can just go do it. But I also have to do it alone.

Tarn Adams, Stack Overflow Blog, 2021

Hacker News

On Hacker News, a commenter, tptacek, said there may be no worse messenger for this problem than the author of Dwarf Fortress. The game, he wrote, "succeeds in spite of and not because of its code." Others in the thread disagreed. One said the design and intent make a game, not the code.

From a code base to a quote

  1. 31 December 2021Stack Overflow Blog profile: 711,000 lines, written alone
  2. Gamescom 2026Adams talks to PC Gamer
  3. 1 September 2026The interview runs

Source: PC Gamer; Stack Overflow Blog.

Adams on his code

Adams himself described his mix of C and C++ as "a mess that's accreted over time."

06

Fermat's Last Theorem, Checked by Machine

Anthropic says a Claude model formalized the 1990s proof in Lean in 11 days. Kevin Buzzard checked it, and says the mathematics is unchanged.

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0
days

Anthropic's figure for how long an internal Claude model needed to turn the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem into code.

Anthropic, 4 September 2026

Disclosure

A disclosure first: I draft these issues with help from Claude, and this story is about Anthropic.

What Anthropic says

Anthropic published "Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem" on 4 September. It says the model produced about 13 million lines of Lean and proved 30,300 intermediate theorems, 29,500 of which are used in the final proof. It used about 6 billion output tokens.

Theorems proved and theorems used

Intermediate theorems proved30,300
Used in the final proof29,500

All numbers are Anthropic's own. Source: Anthropic, 4 September 2026.

Formalization

What is formalization? You take a proof experts have read and accepted, and you translate it into a language where a small, widely trusted checker approves every step down to the foundations of logic. The proof itself is old. Wiles and Taylor published it in the 1990s.

The check

Kevin Buzzard of Imperial College London leads the human project to formalize the same theorem. He wrote a post on 4 September called "FLT: Anthropic has beaten me to it." He says he compiled the code base and ran comparator on it, and "it checks out."

“
Note that mathematically this work of anthropic tells us essentially nothing

Kevin Buzzard, Xena Project blog, 4 September 2026

How sure Buzzard is

0%

Percent sure the proof is correct anyway

Source: Kevin Buzzard, Xena Project blog, 4 September 2026.

Same proof, two counts

Anthropic

About 13 million lines of Lean

Says Buzzard "reviewed" the proof

Buzzard

Over 13.4 million lines

Compiled it, ran comparator, inspected the flagged lines by hand

He did not review 13 million lines of mathematics. Source: Anthropic; Kevin Buzzard, 4 September 2026.

“
If thousands of pages of the literature can be formalized end-to-end by some kind of AI swarm in an 11 day period now, then in the future we will start to see formalization of modern research being done on the fly.

Kevin Buzzard

The cost

A commenter on his blog, David Jao, did the arithmetic: 6 billion output tokens at the API price would be $300,000. That is Jao's calculation. The model is internal, and the internal price is unknown.

07

Eighteen of Twenty Had a Twin

Data Colada flagged a 2002 procrastination study. Psychological Science retracted it on 2 September.

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0
of 20

participants in the Last Day Deadline condition had a "Corrections Twin": another participant who found exactly the same number of errors for each of the three proofreading tasks.

Data Colada [138], 31 August 2026

The design

The design: 60 proofreaders, 20 per condition. Three documents, each with 100 planted errors. Deadlines on days 7, 14 and 21, or self-chosen, or all on day 21.

Participants with a twin

90 of 100. 18 of 20 in the Last Day Deadline condition

18 of 20 is 90 percent (own calculation). Data Colada's analysis, not a university or court finding. Source: Data Colada [138], 31 August 2026.

The effect

The published effect between evenly spaced deadlines and day 21 was d = 2.5, with means of 136.1 and 71.1 corrections. Data Colada compares that with the height difference between men and women, about 1.8.

Corrections found, mean

Evenly spaced deadlines136.1
All due on day 2171.1

d = 2.5

Data Colada compares it with the male-female height gap, about 1.8. Source: Data Colada [138].

The twins

Then the twins. Participants S1 and S11 match exactly across all three tasks. So do S7 and S17. Their ID numbers are exactly ten apart. No such pairs appear in the other two conditions.

Round numbers in reported minutes

Original study11.7%
Replication85%
Expected by chance, about10%

Refers to participants' self-reported minutes, not corrections. Data Colada's analysis, not a university or court finding. Source: Data Colada [138], 31 August 2026; Retraction Watch, 3 September 2026.

Provenance

Provenance matters. Kyle Hyndman received three Excel files on 20 April 2006 in an email from Ariely's MIT account. The file properties read "Last saved by Dan Ariely."

From the files to the retraction

  1. 20 April 2006Hyndman receives three Excel files
  2. 9 August 2023Hyndman passes them to Data Colada
  3. 23 JulyWertenbroch asks for retraction, per Retraction Watch
  4. 31 August 2026Data Colada post 138
  5. 2 September 2026Post 139, and Psychological Science retracts the paper
  6. 3 September 2026Retraction Watch reports it

Data Colada's analysis, not a university or court finding. Source: Data Colada; Retraction Watch.

“
In many ways, this was everything you could wish for in scientific self-correction.

Simine Vazire, editor, to Retraction Watch

Carry this with you

How many studies do you quote in meetings because everyone else does?

Also noted 1/3

A record corruption number.

Gallup says a record 89 percent of Americans call government corruption widespread, up 10 points on 2025. The US leads 38 OECD peers, whose 2025 median was 59 percent (2026 data are not complete). 1,000 adults were surveyed (Gallup).

Read the source

LWN raises its price.

LWN is raising subscriptions about 20 percent from 15 September, only its third rise in 24 years, and says subscriber growth has stalled (LWN).

Read the source
Also noted 2/3

Dutch gold leaves North America.

The Dutch central bank says 86 tonnes held in the US and Canada were moved between March and August 2026. Of those, 59 tonnes were sold in New York and replaced with gold bought in London, and 27 were moved physically. The bank says London gold is "the most readily available for DNB in a crisis situation." Total holdings were 612.4 tonnes in 2025 (ABC News Australia, 4 September).

Read the source

Cyber tools behind a vetted gate.

OpenAI said its next model, Astra, will come out "soon", but only a handful of partners will get its most advanced cybersecurity features (Fortune, 1 September).

Read the source
Also noted 3/3

Apple changes CEO.

John Ternus became Apple's CEO on 1 September, with Tim Cook as executive chairman. The decision was announced in April (headline level; 9to5Mac, 31 August).

Read the source

Spotify's Portal.

A Spotify product manager reports 90 percent fewer tokens in his own Claude Code use by handing bulk reading to a cheaper model. He says editing cannot be delegated, debugging is excluded from the routing, and each handoff takes 10 to 30 seconds (Spotify Engineering).

Read the source
Carry this with you

Think of one claim in your work that rests on a single dataset or a single before-and-after. Who else could check it, and have they?

Carry this with you

Pick one rule or fee your team agreed to for one reason. What else is it being used for now?

Carry this with you

What is the one number you repeated this week, and what exactly did it count?

Mattias

That was the week.